Design the Programme

Module 2: Theory of change development

2.1 Grounding your ToC in the PVE context

Grounding your ToC in the PVE context helps you to synthesise and order the vulnerability and resilience factors you have identified. This synthesised information forms the basis of your ToC.
Why use it? To be able to share with colleagues and partners a clear understanding of aspects of vulnerability and resilience your programme will address.

This tool is most useful at the design stage, but can also be used during implementation. It can be used together with:

1.4 Prioritisation of factors

Refer to your analysis to synthesise the vulnerability and resilience factors your project will address. The table below helps you to clearly order and describe the factors.

As part of this process, identify triggers that could make people more vulnerable to VE. Look also for examples of triggers that could support resilience in your programme context.

The UNDP Journey to extremism in Africa report found issues such as low levels of civic engagement, low educational attainment, poverty, vulnerable or no employment, political marginalisation and targeting of family or friends by security forces to be amongst key vulnerabilities.

Source: UNDP, Journey to Extremism in Africa: Drivers, incentives and the tipping point for recruitment, New York: UNDP, 2017

Table 4: Drivers and triggers of vulnerability and resilience to VE

What makes people vulnerable?


(Describe vulnerability factors)


(Describe social vulnerability factors)


(Describe structural/instiutional vulnerability factors)

Triggers: (Describe)

What exists to make people resilient?


(Describe individual resilience factors)


(Describe social resilience factors)


(Describe structural/instiutional resilience factors)

Triggers: (Describe)

What can, and/or should we address?

Note ideas based on context and your capacity, identifying potential solutions to the problems you wish to address and/or identifying how to build on existing sources for resilience, taking into account what other actors are already working on.

Within vulnerability and resilience factors and triggers, remember to consider gender dynamics (what makes different men and women of different ages more vulnerable or resilient).